Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 830 PHX 09:36 → RNO 11:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2869 PHX 17:51 → RNO 19:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 830 Southwest	PHX 09:36	RNO 11:27	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3246 Southwest	PHX 19:49	RNO 21:41	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	PHX 10:16	RNO 12:16	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 2016 American Flight history →	PHX 13:45	RNO 15:49	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 2869 American	PHX 17:51	RNO 19:52	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON