Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3247 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3247 PHX 07:34 → SAN 08:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3107 PHX 18:36 → SAN 19:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3247 Southwest	PHX 07:34	SAN 08:52	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 456 Southwest	PHX 09:33	SAN 10:52	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 548 Southwest	PHX 08:17	SAN 09:35	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1793 American	PHX 07:41	SAN 09:09	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 366 Southwest	PHX 11:53	SAN 13:11	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2122 American Flight history →	PHX 10:34	SAN 12:01	15%	5%	0.7%	81%
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 11:29	SAN 13:03	15%	6%	0.8%	78%
AS 1708 Alaska	PHX 07:21	SAN 08:26	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 14:12	SAN 15:36	16%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 4371 Southwest	PHX 13:34	SAN 14:52	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3251 Southwest	PHX 15:49	SAN 17:07	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 480 American Flight history →	PHX 16:59	SAN 18:21	16%	4%	0.7%	73%
OO 3033 SkyWest	PHX 12:09	SAN 13:37	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:41	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3107 Southwest	PHX 18:36	SAN 19:55	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON