Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3984 PHX 07:48 → SBA 09:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest MQ 3931 PHX 10:16 → SBA 12:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3984 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:48	SBA 09:33	11%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 1855 American	PHX 17:06	SBA 18:55	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3931 Envoy	PHX 10:16	SBA 12:05	13%	2%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON