tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4503 at 11:39, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4503 Southwest PHX 11:39 SDF 17:58 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 57m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:14 → SDF 17:37AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 8h 27m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → SDF 21:36DL 2842 8h 22m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:54 → PHL 16:42AA 2300 3h 53m Philadelphia PHL 20:35 → SDF 22:43AA 4335 · flown by Republic 10h 49m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:09 → ORD 14:38UA 1124 3h 12m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 8h 14m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:10 → ORD 16:01AA 332 3h 28m Chicago ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04AA 4603 · flown by Republic 8h 54m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 3h 46m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 10h 10m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 53m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 5h 28m 97% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON