Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1570 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1570 PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3267 PHX 18:19 → SEA 21:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1570 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:59	SEA 10:05	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2374 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:19	SEA 12:30	10%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:15	SEA 15:25	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:54	SEA 19:02	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:17	SEA 17:27	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:40	SEA 20:46	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:55	SEA 21:05	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:44	SEA 11:05	10%	2%	0.5%	97%
AS 605 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SEA 08:58	11%	2%	0.6%	93%
MQ 4207 Envoy	PHX 10:42	SEA 14:02	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1348 Alaska	PHX 18:56	SEA 22:05	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 611 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:29	SEA 17:27	17%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 2474 Southwest	PHX 09:06	SEA 11:59	22%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 645 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:29	22%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 603 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 09:24	SEA 12:21	22%	3%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 401 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 16:13	SEA 19:11	22%	3%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
WN 3258 Southwest	PHX 14:29	SEA 17:22	23%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 637 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:28	SEA 14:21	23%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 3267 Southwest	PHX 18:19	SEA 21:12	27%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON