Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2449 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2449 PHX 06:56 → SFO 09:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time Riskiest WN 974 PHX 19:50 → SFO 21:53 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2449 United Flight history →	PHX 06:56	SFO 09:14	13%	4%	0.6%	25%
OO 5985 SkyWest	PHX 15:34	SFO 18:07	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2100 United	PHX 08:45	SFO 11:02	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3260 Southwest	PHX 11:14	SFO 13:17	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2619 United Flight history →	PHX 10:45	SFO 13:02	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
AA 6430 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:32	SFO 09:47	19%	6%	0.5%	94%worse than usual
AA 3199 American Flight history →	PHX 11:45	SFO 13:50	20%	6%	0.6%	31%
AA 2860 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SFO 16:05	22%	7%	0.6%	48%
WN 1488 Southwest	PHX 16:19	SFO 18:23	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2421 American Flight history →	PHX 16:52	SFO 19:05	22%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 693 United	PHX 19:30	SFO 21:36	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 974 Southwest	PHX 19:50	SFO 21:53	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON