Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3581 PHX 09:24 → SJC 11:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2094 PHX 16:22 → SJC 18:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3581 Southwest	PHX 09:24	SJC 11:22	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 11:02	SJC 13:09	6%	3%	0.8%	95%
WN 962 Southwest	PHX 12:10	SJC 14:09	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3264 Southwest	PHX 15:41	SJC 17:39	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 427 Southwest	PHX 19:42	SJC 21:41	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2094 American Flight history →	PHX 16:22	SJC 18:28	13%	4%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON