Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 14 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 807 PHX 15:52 → SLC 18:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2483 Southwest	PHX 07:26	SLC 10:01	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	6%	3%	0.4%	91%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SLC 19:43	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:20	SLC 15:58	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SLC 12:47	8%	3%	0.5%	100%
WN 3995 Southwest	PHX 10:42	SLC 13:17	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:02	SLC 21:50	9%	4%	0.5%	86%
OO 9908 SkyWest	PHX 16:22	SLC 19:09	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 13:36	SLC 16:17	11%	4%	0.8%	85%
WN 4121 Southwest	PHX 13:11	SLC 15:46	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1972 Southwest	PHX 19:57	SLC 22:42	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 807 Southwest	PHX 15:52	SLC 18:27	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON