Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 736 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 736 PHX 07:30 → SMF 09:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 464 PHX 18:09 → SMF 20:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 736 Southwest	PHX 07:30	SMF 09:31	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3272 Southwest	PHX 09:17	SMF 11:18	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	PHX 07:09	SMF 09:21	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	PHX 13:48	SMF 16:06	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1346 Southwest	PHX 12:30	SMF 14:31	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	PHX 10:05	SMF 12:27	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 1297 Southwest	PHX 18:18	SMF 20:21	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3877 Southwest	PHX 13:50	SMF 15:51	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1393 Southwest	PHX 19:45	SMF 21:47	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 464 American	PHX 18:09	SMF 20:28	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON