Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2645 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2645 PHX 07:14 → SNA 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2423 PHX 10:52 → SNA 12:13 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2645 Southwest	PHX 07:14	SNA 08:35	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 07:51	SNA 09:24	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 3745 Southwest	PHX 09:22	SNA 10:43	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4380 Southwest	PHX 17:57	SNA 19:17	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1656 American	PHX 11:07	SNA 12:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:15	SNA 15:45	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	PHX 10:12	SNA 11:40	12%	3%	0.6%	68%
AA 2471 American Flight history →	PHX 16:59	SNA 18:34	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 2154 Southwest	PHX 13:49	SNA 15:09	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1586 Southwest	PHX 16:14	SNA 17:35	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2423 United	PHX 10:52	SNA 12:13	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON