Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3280 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3280 PHX 05:59 → STL 10:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 890 PHX 15:17 → STL 20:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3280 Southwest	PHX 05:59	STL 10:50	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3281 Southwest	PHX 08:38	STL 13:32	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 2660 American	PHX 08:36	STL 13:57	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1574 Southwest	PHX 18:19	STL 23:13	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3282 Southwest	PHX 13:17	STL 18:08	19%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 15:17	STL 20:23	20%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON