Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:22	STS 12:42	10%	2%	0.9%	96%
OO 4989 SkyWest	PHX 13:28	STS 15:47	13%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PHX 14:29 → SEA 17:27AS 611	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → STS 21:51AS 1330	7h 22m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	PHX 06:00 → SEA 08:58AS 605	56m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	5h 58m	83%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON