tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1025 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1025 American PHX 08:48 TPA 16:19 11% 3% 1.6% no record
WN 4791 Southwest PHX 13:30 TPA 20:30 22% 3% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
FrontierDetails → PHX 06:12 → DEN 09:16F9 1376 2h 06m Denver DEN 11:22 → TPA 16:58F9 2748 7h 46m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 7h 25m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385 9h 44m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 50m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 14m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 2h 15m Chicago ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920 8h 41m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 16m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 8h 40m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 6h 43m 96% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON