tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3285 Southwest PHX 10:38 TUL 14:56 10% 2% 0.4% no record
MQ 3645 Envoy PHX 15:15 TUL 19:54 16% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 1h 39m Chicago ORD 08:29 → TUL 10:37AA 4155 · flown by Envoy 7h 22m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 12m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 37m Houston IAH 14:29 → TUL 16:10UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 00m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 49m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 34m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 94% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:19 → TUL 15:38AA 2851 7h 28m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON