Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3958 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 3958 PHX 07:12 → TUS 08:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4381 PHX 19:43 → TUS 20:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:12	TUS 08:12	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:42	TUS 09:40	10%	4%	0.5%	83%
OO 6366 SkyWest	PHX 10:17	TUS 11:15	11%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 14:17	TUS 15:18	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2745 Southwest	PHX 12:42	TUS 13:35	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
OO 6332 SkyWest	PHX 12:29	TUS 13:28	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 15:30	TUS 16:29	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 9920 SkyWest	PHX 16:32	TUS 17:30	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:44	TUS 19:43	15%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 4381 Southwest	PHX 19:43	TUS 20:35	20%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON