Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2800 American	PHX 08:59	XNA 14:04	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:49	XNA 20:30	13%	3%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:31 → XNA 13:54AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	3h 14m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → XNA 17:18DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	9h 18m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:19 → XNA 15:47AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 37m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:27 → XNA 17:08DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	5h 23m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → XNA 16:40DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	8h 55m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHX 10:10 → ORD 16:01AA 332	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 18:58 → XNA 20:48AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	8h 38m	99%	87%
American Details →	PHX 05:02 → ORD 10:37AA 3062	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 11:37 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:34DL 1710	8h 20m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON