Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3022 at 08:36, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3022 Southwest	PIT 08:36	AUS 10:41	3%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	6h 18m	99%	92%
United Details →	PIT 08:36 → ORD 09:30UA 3461 · flown by Republic	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	7h 05m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 20m	98%	91%
United Details →	PIT 06:57 → ORD 07:38UA 1803	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688	6h 02m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:09 → DTW 07:20DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	1h 44m Detroit	DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218	5h 50m	97%	89%
American Details →	PIT 11:39 → DFW 13:36AA 1583	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:24 → AUS 18:32AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	7h 53m	99%	88%
United Details →	PIT 17:05 → IAH 19:17UA 1563	2h 58m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	7h 07m	100%	88%
United Details →	PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859	3h 47m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	7h 57m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON