Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4336 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day YX 4336 PIT 06:06 → DCA 07:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5094 PIT 18:34 → DCA 20:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4336 Republic	PIT 06:06	DCA 07:36	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
OH 5402 PSA	PIT 09:46	DCA 11:15	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4757 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:01	DCA 14:19	12%	3%	0.5%	69%
AA 5094 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 18:34	DCA 20:07	15%	7%	0.9%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON