Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1874 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1874 PIT 06:02 → DEN 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1816 PIT 16:44 → DEN 18:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1874 Southwest	PIT 06:02	DEN 07:25	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1765 United Flight history →	PIT 08:30	DEN 09:59	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3297 Southwest	PIT 18:38	DEN 20:10	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1816 United Flight history →	PIT 16:44	DEN 18:11	16%	4%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON