Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3581 PIT 10:29 → IAD 11:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4495 PIT 15:21 → IAD 16:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3581 Republic	PIT 10:29	IAD 11:57	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 3541 Republic	PIT 19:57	IAD 21:13	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
G7 4495 GoJet	PIT 15:21	IAD 16:46	8%	2%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON