Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4587 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 4587 PIT 06:14 → JFK 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 5775 PIT 12:07 → JFK 13:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4587 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:14	JFK 07:49	5%	2%	1.1%	93%
YX 5788 Republic	PIT 07:19	JFK 09:01	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
B6 1198 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 06:25	JFK 07:57	7%	4%	1.6%	89%
AA 4568 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 12:13	JFK 13:55	17%	6%	4.2%	86%
YX 5775 Republic	PIT 12:07	JFK 13:46	17%	6%	4.2%	no record
DL 5085 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 17:04	JFK 18:55	48%	34%	12.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON