Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2004 PIT 13:09 → LAX 15:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 479 PIT 08:36 → LAX 10:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2004 Delta	PIT 13:09	LAX 15:23	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2055 United	PIT 15:37	LAX 17:44	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 479 Delta	PIT 08:36	LAX 10:54	12%	2%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	7h 27m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 03m	95%	86%
United Details →	PIT 10:54 → ORD 11:42UA 455	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363	7h 40m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON