Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4610 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4610 PIT 06:09 → LGA 07:39 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4396 PIT 19:07 → LGA 20:44 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4610 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:09	LGA 07:39	5%	2%	1.9%	93%
DL 5753 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:05	LGA 07:33	5%	2%	1.9%	96%
YX 5815 Republic	PIT 08:09	LGA 09:47	12%	4%	2.2%	no record
YX 5786 Republic	PIT 10:15	LGA 11:53	14%	7%	3.0%	no record
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:39	LGA 12:15	15%	7%	3.4%	80%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:00	LGA 14:36	27%	13%	4.4%	84%worse than usual
YX 4433 Republic	PIT 15:38	LGA 17:16	32%	15%	3.3%	no record
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 15:35	LGA 17:06	33%	15%	3.4%	68%
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 19:07	LGA 20:44	34%	15%	2.7%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON