Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4810 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4810 PIT 08:53 → MDW 09:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3308 PIT 18:56 → MDW 19:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4810 Southwest	PIT 08:53	MDW 09:20	8%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2385 Southwest	PIT 13:51	MDW 14:19	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3308 Southwest	PIT 18:56	MDW 19:24	20%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON