Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 2313 at 06:15, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2313 American Flight history →	PIT 06:15	MIA 09:08	7%	3%	0.8%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 12m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	98%	90%
American Details →	PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:39AA 376	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 09:13 → MIA 11:24AA 3184	5h 23m	100%	90%
American Details →	PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26AA 4531 · flown by Republic	2h 04m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 11:30 → MIA 13:45AA 2321	5h 45m	99%	88%
American Details →	PIT 06:09 → LGA 07:39AA 4610 · flown by Republic	1h 49m New York	LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211	6h 36m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33DL 5753 · flown by Republic	3h 42m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 19m	99%	87%
American Details →	PIT 07:52 → ORD 08:37AA 4539 · flown by Republic	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → MIA 14:09AA 2689	6h 17m	98%	85%
American Details →	PIT 08:01 → CLT 09:39AA 384	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 10m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON