Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 553 PIT 06:12 → PHL 07:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5132 PIT 14:43 → PHL 16:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 553 American	PIT 06:12	PHL 07:36	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3248 American Flight history →	PIT 08:17	PHL 09:46	14%	4%	0.7%	40%
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 11:03	PHL 12:29	15%	6%	0.9%	67%
OH 5259 PSA	PIT 17:23	PHL 18:53	17%	8%	1.0%	no record
OH 5132 PSA	PIT 14:43	PHL 16:13	18%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 19:45	PHL 21:09	25%	7%	14.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON