tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 14:10, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3043 Southwest PIT 13:29 PHX 14:59 9% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:14 → JFK 07:49AA 4587 · flown by Republic 1h 25m New York JFK 09:14 → PHX 11:24AA 1186 8h 10m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:39AA 376 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 8h 03m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 18m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 7h 46m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 8h 51m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 09:59UA 1765 3h 28m Denver DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631 9h 03m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 1h 22m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 19m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929 7h 50m 97% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 46m 71% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON