Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:00	RDU 09:26	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
YX 4742 Republic	PIT 16:20	RDU 17:55	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	5h 50m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 37m	98%	91%
American Details →	PIT 06:01 → CLT 07:39AA 376	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → RDU 11:18AA 2688	5h 17m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	7h 15m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	7h 04m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	7h 00m	99%	87%
American Details →	PIT 08:01 → CLT 09:39AA 384	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:59 → RDU 13:04AA 1897	5h 03m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Boston	BOS 10:00 → RDU 12:04DL 2118	6h 04m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont	51m Philadelphia	PHL 22:00 → RDU 23:33AA 2692	3h 48m	68%	50%
Delta Details →	PIT 14:25 → BOS 16:20DL 5731 · flown by Republic	55m Boston	BOS 17:15 → RDU 19:37DL 2782	5h 12m	63%	43%
Delta Details →	PIT 13:00 → LGA 14:36DL 5694 · flown by Republic	54m New York	LGA 15:30 → RDU 17:35DL 5109 · flown by Endeavor	4h 35m	63%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON