tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 78 Alaska Flight history → PIT 07:30 SEA 09:49 13% 2% 0.7% 90%
AS 412 Alaska Flight history → PIT 18:10 SEA 20:30 22% 5% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 9h 28m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 45m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 8h 37m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 51m Houston IAH 12:09 → SEA 15:00UA 2228 11h 45m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 27m Dulles IAD 13:09 → SEA 15:57UA 1824 8h 27m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:01 → CLT 09:39AA 384 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 12:34 → SEA 15:24AA 506 10h 23m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 10h 04m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 15m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 17:23 → SFO 19:51UA 436 54m San Francisco SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007 8h 47m 74% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON