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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2820 United Flight history → PIT 06:58 SFO 09:25 14% 4% 0.6% 89%
UA 436 United Flight history → PIT 17:23 SFO 19:51 16% 5% 0.6% 47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 35m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → PIT 17:05 → IAH 19:17UA 1563 2h 42m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 10h 00m 100% 90%
JetBlueDetails → PIT 06:25 → JFK 07:57B6 1198 2h 33m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 8h 49m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:14 → JFK 07:49AA 4587 · flown by Republic 2h 40m New York JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149 10h 40m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:49DL 656 9h 54m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 9h 12m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 08m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 7h 37m 72% 63%
UnitedDetails → PIT 17:58 → ORD 18:38UA 602 1h 00m Chicago ORD 19:38 → SFO 23:17UA 649 8h 19m 75% 62%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 46m Detroit DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361 6h 57m 69% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON