Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5548 PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2476 PNS 12:49 → CLT 15:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5548 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 05:22	CLT 08:18	6%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 3215 American	PNS 08:18	CLT 11:08	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2476 American	PNS 12:49	CLT 15:39	13%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON