Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5424 PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OH 5139 PNS 16:54 → DCA 20:20 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5424 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 06:00	DCA 09:24	11%	5%	0.9%	84%
OH 5449 PSA	PNS 10:42	DCA 14:14	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5139 PSA	PNS 16:54	DCA 20:20	17%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON