Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4114 PNS 18:14 → DFW 20:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2328 PNS 15:21 → DFW 17:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4114 Envoy	PNS 18:14	DFW 20:30	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 11:29	DFW 13:31	10%	3%	0.8%	79%
OH 5499 PSA	PNS 06:54	DFW 09:01	11%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2328 American Flight history →	PNS 15:21	DFW 17:27	18%	6%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON