tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MX 1559 at 08:54, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MX 1559 Breeze PNS 08:54 MCO 11:31 19% 5% 4.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 3h 57m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 4h 00m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 3h 59m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 17:23 → ATL 19:38DL 1013 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → MCO 00:25 +1DL 1162 6h 02m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → MCO 15:26DL 1372 5h 04m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:34AA 5548 · flown by PSA 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 10:54 → MCO 12:47AA 1576 5h 02m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:19 → ATL 15:35DL 1640 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 5h 29m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy 1h 13m Miami MIA 10:02 → MCO 11:13AA 2587 4h 13m 94% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON