Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3386 at 06:00, 9%.

Safest bet that day AA 3386 PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 3568 PNS 14:05 → MIA 17:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3386 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 06:00	MIA 08:49	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:30	MIA 22:23	25%	9%	2.2%	87%worse than usual
MQ 3568 Envoy	PNS 14:05	MIA 17:07	26%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON