tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 658 at 16:18, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United PNS 16:18 ORD 18:49 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:40UA 1691 7h 40m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 7h 14m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:46 → CLT 09:35AA 5548 · flown by PSA 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 33m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA 2h 11m Washington DCA 11:35 → ORD 12:49AA 808 6h 49m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:21 → DFW 17:27AA 2328 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → ORD 22:12AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 6h 51m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → PNS 11:29 → DFW 13:31AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:46 → ORD 19:35AA 1290 8h 06m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 15m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:21 → DFW 17:27AA 2328 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:15 → ORD 20:47AA 2656 5h 26m 74% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON