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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 7h 02m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 7h 03m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 24m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 6h 26m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 5h 15m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:46 → CLT 09:34AA 5548 · flown by PSA 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 7h 04m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 30m Houston IAH 12:12 → PHL 16:34UA 2748 8h 34m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy 2h 51m Miami MIA 11:40 → PHL 14:36AA 1918 7h 36m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON