tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5007 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 05:01 PHX 07:41 6% 5% 0.5% 94%
OO 6244 SkyWest PSC 15:32 PHX 18:22 11% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 6h 10m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 9h 04m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 5h 57m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PSC 05:05 → DEN 08:34UA 480 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 5h 51m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447 7h 57m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 18:23 → PHX 19:26UA 1507 7h 18m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 18:58 → PHX 20:56UA 1375 7h 21m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Seattle SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419 5h 55m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON