Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1010 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–14%.

Safest bet that day UA 1010 PSP 05:11 → DEN 08:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1552 PSP 16:08 → DEN 19:19 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1010 United Flight history →	PSP 05:11	DEN 08:32	3%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 5617 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 09:05	DEN 12:43	6%	3%	0.5%	90%
WN 3322 Southwest	PSP 07:01	DEN 10:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1843 United Flight history →	PSP 13:30	DEN 16:43	13%	5%	0.5%	76%
UA 1552 United Flight history →	PSP 16:08	DEN 19:19	14%	3%	0.5%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON