tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3053 at 12:46, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3053 Southwest PSP 12:46 LAS 13:51 12% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:11 → DEN 08:32UA 1010 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 13m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:05 → DEN 12:43UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m Denver DEN 16:06 → LAS 17:14UA 2424 8h 09m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662 6h 25m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 55m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 10:36 → LAS 12:01UA 1047 4h 35m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:28 → SFO 15:06UA 1430 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 5h 59m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:43 → LAS 20:40UA 1953 7h 10m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:45 → PHX 14:04AA 1884 2h 58m Phoenix PHX 17:02 → LAS 18:21AA 1505 5h 36m 96% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON