Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4921 PSP 06:32 → PHX 07:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1884 PSP 12:45 → PHX 14:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4921 SkyWest	PSP 06:32	PHX 07:48	7%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6406 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 16:56	PHX 18:33	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 1884 American Flight history →	PSP 12:45	PHX 14:04	16%	5%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON