tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1494 Alaska PSP 14:05 SEA 16:58 15% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 1497 Alaska PSP 06:57 SEA 09:49 18% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:45 → PHX 14:03AA 1884 3h 52m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:05 → DEN 12:43UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 54m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:11 → DEN 08:32UA 1010 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:27 → SEA 13:27UA 2058 8h 16m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 43m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → SEA 01:29 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:08 → DEN 19:19UA 1552 1h 51m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 02m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 6h 10m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:28 → SFO 15:06UA 1430 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 18:42 → SEA 20:47UA 1097 7h 19m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON