Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5631 at 18:27 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 5631 PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AS 3497 PSP 07:15 → SFO 08:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5631 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 18:27	SFO 20:10	11%	6%	0.7%	64%
OO 3180 SkyWest	PSP 13:53	SFO 15:38	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1430 United Flight history →	PSP 13:28	SFO 15:06	18%	6%	0.6%	57%
UA 2150 United	PSP 11:15	SFO 13:04	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 6052 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 08:06	SFO 10:06	24%	14%	0.6%	60%
AS 3497 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 07:15	SFO 08:48	30%	13%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON