tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1571 at 17:28, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1571 Southwest PSP 17:28 SMF 19:06 8% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 29m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 10m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:05 → DEN 12:43UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 52m Denver DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:11UA 662 6h 06m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132 7h 42m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 58m Portland PDX 10:46 → SMF 12:30AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 5h 14m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:28 → SFO 15:06UA 1430 3h 57m San Francisco SFO 19:03 → SMF 19:52UA 1862 6h 24m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:08 → DEN 19:19UA 1552 1h 09m Denver DEN 20:28 → SMF 22:07UA 1602 5h 59m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest 57m Los Angeles LAX 09:27 → SMF 11:13UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m 84% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON