Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3326 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3326 PVD 05:52 → BWI 07:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4480 PVD 15:04 → BWI 16:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3326 Southwest	PVD 05:52	BWI 07:17	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 117 Southwest	PVD 08:09	BWI 09:41	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3327 Southwest	PVD 10:17	BWI 11:48	6%	2%	2.0%	no record
WN 1217 Southwest	PVD 11:50	BWI 13:12	9%	3%	2.0%	no record
WN 4480 Southwest	PVD 15:04	BWI 16:35	14%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON