Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1585 PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2679 PVD 16:43 → CLT 19:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1585 American Flight history →	PVD 06:03	CLT 08:15	4%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 1569 American Flight history →	PVD 11:18	CLT 13:34	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	PVD 19:24	CLT 21:44	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 2679 American	PVD 16:43	CLT 19:00	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON