Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 863 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 863 PVD 05:45 → DCA 07:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5438 PVD 20:38 → DCA 22:19 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 863 American	PVD 05:45	DCA 07:25	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2399 Southwest	PVD 08:29	DCA 10:03	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
OH 5023 PSA	PVD 09:13	DCA 11:04	14%	6%	3.6%	no record
WN 759 Southwest	PVD 17:29	DCA 19:02	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 12:09	DCA 14:00	25%	10%	3.2%	71%
OH 5173 PSA	PVD 17:17	DCA 19:00	25%	10%	3.4%	no record
AA 2641 American	PVD 15:27	DCA 17:21	26%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 20:38	DCA 22:19	29%	10%	5.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON