Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3575 at 14:41, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3575 PVD 14:41 → IAD 16:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3575 Republic	PVD 14:41	IAD 16:17	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 6192 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 05:50	IAD 07:29	5%	2%	3.6%	95%
UA 4609 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 10:25	IAD 12:01	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 6159 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 14:46	IAD 16:34	21%	10%	2.7%	79%
UA 4078 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 19:40	IAD 21:21	27%	17%	3.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON