tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, B6 1129 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1129 JetBlue Flight history → PVD 06:00 JFK 07:00 6% 3% 0.6% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 7h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 8h 02m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 11:40 → JFK 13:36AA 374 7h 33m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632 7h 31m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PVD 12:56 → DTW 15:00DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Detroit DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934 5h 33m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360 2h 31m Chicago ORD 11:30 → JFK 14:44AA 3225 7h 36m 98% 80%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197 2h 28m Fort Lauderdale FLL 11:20 → JFK 14:13B6 2102 8h 28m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON