Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 16%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3331 at 07:43, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 3331 PVD 07:43 → MCO 10:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1347 PVD 14:59 → MCO 17:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Weather 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3331 Southwest	PVD 07:43	MCO 10:26	5%	2%	1.2%	no record
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 17:41	MCO 20:46	19%	12%	5.1%	60%
WN 1347 Southwest	PVD 14:59	MCO 17:51	26%	9%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON